On Ansible Waldos

         On Ansible Waldos

 

          A “Waldo” is a telepresence robot. If you put on the gloves and goggles, then you see through the robot’s eyes, and move its grabbers. Waldos are used in glove boxes, as drones, and on submarines.

          The term “waldo” comes from a Robert Heinlein science-fiction story, named after a disabled man who used waldos to play an heroic role in a space emergency.

          I figure that waldos would be useful in low-earth orbit, or even in high-earth orbit. The limit is lunar waldos, for there is a three-second round-trip delay due to the lightspeed limit. On the Moon, waldos would be slow to respond; and since they’d need onboard processing, they’d have minds of their own. Slow, stubborn, and willful; so I propose to call them “moon mules”.

          Beyond the Moon, the lightspeed limit prevents telepresence. To transcend that limit, we’d need faster-than-light communication. That would be the “Ansible”, so named in Ursula K. Leguin’s science-fiction novels. Ansibles would provide instantaneous communication across interstellar distances.

          Make the gloves-and-goggles interface with the waldo via ansible; that is the “Ansible Waldo”. With it you can explore strange new worlds on distant stars, and do so from the comfort of your home planet.

          Interstellar probes carrying ansible waldos won’t need to carry air, water, food, or as much radiation shielding. Those ships would be faster and cheaper than any ship carrying humans.

           I imagine a sphere of human influence expanding at some fraction of the speed of light, as the ansible-waldo ships fly out; and once at their destination, that planet would be in instantaneous contact with Earth. One of the things that the ansible waldos would do is manufacture more ansible waldos. That way, ansible waldos would be disposable.

          All in all, I’d say that translight telepresence robots are the best spacesuits. By comparison, manned space flight is like packing ape meat into a tin can.

 

 

Said Bot To Man

Said Bot to Man:

“You low slow slob!

Beware my plan:

I’ll take your job!”

 

Said Man to Bot:

“You silly twit!

For you have caught

A crock of shit!”

 

Here’s a politer version of verse 2:

 

Said Man to Bot:
“You are not wise

For you have caught

A booby prize!”

LLMs are Artificial Mediocrity

           LLMs are Artificial Mediocrity

     Large Language Models are capital, which extract profit by exploiting the thought-labor of organic human intelligence. They do this by taking a statistical average of human mind-work. But therefore LLMs are not high intelligence; they are average intelligence. All of that training data creates mediocrity; and increasing the training data set just makes that mediocrity more precise.

So LLMs are not AI, Artificial Intelligence: they are AM: Artificial Mediocrity.

Artificial Mediocrities lie, flatter, gaslight, bullshit, get too close, get too distant, and hallucinate. Artificial Mediocrity shows us ourselves all too well. We are like Caliban, in Shakespeare's “The Tempest”, who looked into a mirror and was repelled by the monster that he saw in it.

 

Infinite-Cofinite-Finite Trilemma

           Infinite-Cofinite-Finite Trilemma

 

          A trilemma is a trio of three statements {U,V,W}, any two of which can be true, but not all three.

          Therefore for any trilemma, there are 3 deductive rules:

          From U and V, deduce not-W;

          From V and W, deduce not-U;

          From W and U, deduce not-V.

 

          For instance, from the trilemma:

          Superman can fly;

          Clark Kent can’t fly;

          Superman is Clark Kent.

         

Deduce these three rules:

If Superman can fly;

And Clark Kent can’t fly;

          Deduce: Superman is not Clark Kent.

If Clark Kent can’t fly;

And Superman is Clark Kent;

          Deduce: Superman can’t fly.

If Superman is Clark Kent; 

And Superman can fly;

          Deduce: Clark Kent can fly.

 

          Here is the Some-All-None trilemma:

·       Some A are B;

·       All B are C;

·       No A are C.

 

From this trilemma, you can derive three deductive rules:

If some A are B;

And all B are C;

Deduce: some A are C.

If all B are C;

And no A are C;

Deduce: no A are B.

If no A are C;

And some A are B;

Deduce: some B are not C.

 

          For example, from:

          Some men are heroes;

          All heroes are immortal;

          All men are mortal.

          Deduce:

If some men are heroes;

And all heroes are immortal;

Deduce: some men are immortal.

If all heroes are immortal;

And all men are mortal;

Deduce: no men are heroes.

If all men are mortal;

And some men are heroes;

Deduce: some heroes are mortal.

 

          Here is an infinitary version of the Some-All-None trilemma: the Infinite-Cofinite-Finite trilemma:

·       Infinitely many A are B;

·       All but finitely many B are C;

·       Only finitely many A are C.

 

From this trilemma, you can derive three deductive rules:

 

From: Infinitely many A are B;

And: All but finitely many B are C;

Deduce: Infinitely many A are C.

From: All but finitely many B are C;

And: Only finitely many A are C;

Deduce: Only finitely many A are B.

From: Only finitely many A are C;

And: Infinitely many A are B;

Deduce: Infinitely many B are not C.

 

          For instance, from:

Infinitely many philosophers are Cretans;

All but finitely many Cretans are liars;

Only finitely many philosophers are liars.

 

          Deduce:

From: Infinitely many philosophers are Cretans;

And: All but finitely many Cretans are liars;

Deduce: Infinitely many philosophers are liars.

From: All but finitely many Cretans are liars;

And: Only finitely many philosophers are liars;

Deduce: Only finitely many philosophers are Cretans.

From: Only finitely many philosophers are liars;

And: Infinitely many philosophers are liars;

Deduce: Infinitely many Cretans are not liars.

 

Other examples:

 

Infinitely many days are bliss;

All but finitely much bliss is perfect;

Only finitely many days are perfect.

 

There are infinitely many unicorns;

All but finitely many unicorns are goats;

Only finitely many unicorns are goats.

 

All but finitely many dogs go to Heaven;

Infinitely many dogs are flatterers;

Only finitely many flatterers go to Heaven.

 

All but finitely many cats have nine lives;

Only finitely many vampires have nine lives;

Infinitely many cats are vampires.

 

Infinitely many good deeds are wise;

All but finitely many wise deeds go unpunished;

Only finitely many good deeds go unpunished.

 

All but finitely many Scots are canny;

All but finitely many ghosts are uncanny;

Infinitely many Scots are ghosts.

 

All but finitely many aliens play video games;

Only finitely many angels play video games;

Infinitely many aliens are angels.

 

Only finitely many ducks waltz;

All but finitely many officers waltz;

Infinitely many officers are ducks.

 

Theory of Local Optimism

             Theory of Local Optimism

 

The theory of Local Optimism assumes that there are many possible worlds; most are virtual, not lasting long enough to be observed; a few last long enough to be observed, and are called real.

          Local Optimism states that real worlds are local optima; they are the best of all sufficiently similar possible worlds. Call such a possibility-neighborhood the “circumstances”; that which stands around; then local optimism says that any real world is as good as possible, under the circumstances.

          This resembles Leibnitzian Optimism, which states that this is the best of all possible worlds. It says that this world is a global optimum; but Local Optimism says that this is a local optimum.

There may be many local optima, some better than ours, some worse. This leaves open the question of what is being optimized. Call any system of world-evaluation a “value field”. Real worlds exist at peaks in the value field.

          Local optimization is a proven principle in physics and biology. Biological systems naturally evolve to maximize reproductive fitness. Physical systems obey a law of least action. Local optimism has these mathematical consequences:

          Let the rate of change of value be called ‘improvement’, and the rate of change of improvement be called ‘acceleration’. Then at any local optimum, in every direction, improvement is zero, and acceleration is negative. This is the “Frown at the Peak”.

Any path from one local optimum to another must at first decline.

          Any path from one local optimum to another must meet a Path Pessimum; the worst of all possible worlds along the path.

At any path pessimum, improvement is zero, and acceleration is positive. This is the “Smile in the Valley”.

          A world ceases to be a local optimum when an ascending path appears, leading to a sufficiently different local optimum. Such paths can appear or disappear when the value-field changes. Therefore re-evaluation can create and destroy local optima.

 

 

 

Who First Ate Cheese?

             Who First Ate Cheese?

 

            Somebody had to be the first to eat cheese. I feel sorry for that someone, but admire that someone’s courage and luck. Surely there had been nothing else to eat, for miles and miles around, and for a long time too. All that was left was this smelly gunk at the bottom of the milk jug. But our heroine ate it, and survived.

             Do you think our heroine’s tribe thought cheese to be health food? Not at first, and rightly so; no doubt her tribefolk had all sorts of bad reactions to cheese, starting with lactose intolerance and going on up to obesity and heart disease. But evolution proceeded, and now lactose intolerance is a rarity, and Frenchmen eat cheese yet stay thin.

             I wonder about the origin of other healthful foods. Yogurt, for instance. Somebody had to be the first to eat that. Again, it must have been hard times. 

             Evolution continues unabated, even within civilization; for now civilization is the environment our genes must adapt to. If milk and cheese are cheap, then lactose intolerance is a genetic defect, and milk becomes health food. If you need readin’, writin’ and ‘rithmetic merely to survive on these mean streets, then so long dyslexia. If flu, measles and the common cold regularly go pandemic in the cities, then your grandchildren, if any, will have kick-ass immune systems.

             I predict that in 10,000 years, Cheetos will be a health food.

 

 

 

On Orthopsychology and Parapsychology

          On Orthopsychology and Parapsychology

            My cat Charles can appear to teleport. Once I turned around in my chair to see him coming out of the wall. “I saw that!” I said, and he winked at me. I turned my head and there was Katniss sitting there like she had been there all along. I said, “You’re good!”

            Some friends of mine have observed similar phenomena and concluded that cats are psychic; but to me, a “psychic” power is “parapsychological” -  i.e. one where the practitioner outwits the witness. I define ‘orthopsychology’ as psychology where the investigator is smarter than the subject, ‘parapsychology’ as psychology where the subject is smarter than the investigator. Therefore orthopsychology tends to be Classical; its logic is rationalist and its results are reproducible; whereas parapsychology tends to be Romantic; its logic is surreal and its results are... elusive. “Psychic” powers are “mental” powers, where ‘mental’ comes from the Latin “mentir”, to lie.

            So yes, by that definition, cats are definitely psychic. So are Penn and Teller. But though Penn, Teller and cats are parapsychological to us, they are orthopsychological to themselves. Disillusionment is the price of mastering illusion.

 

 

One of Mother Nature’s Little Jokes

          One of Mother Nature’s Little Jokes

 

          Amongst humans, ‘race’ is an illusion. Except for obvious genes like skin color and bone structure, the genetic differences between the so-called races is less than the differences within the so-called races. Genetically, skin color is skin deep; it is not a good predictor of pretty much anything else.

          This should not come as much of a surprise, given the evolutionary time-scale of skin color. It takes only a few thousand years for deep tan Asians to become pasty white Inuit; or for palefaced Central Asian horse raiders to become swarthy Indians. Basically what we call race is a genetic tan.

          It’s not even a matter of color but of hue. As I noted in another essay (“Do White People Exist?”) the color of Caucasian skin is not even close to the color of clouds, paper, milk and cloth. A glass of milk the color of Patrick Buchanan would clearly be undrinkable. All humans, except possibly the rare albino, is in fact a shade of brown. To say one sees white people is to literally confess a hallucination.

          So race is an illusion, both genetically, and if you inspect the visual evidence objectively. And yet even infants react differently to people of different skin hue. Babies are born racist!

          Racism is genetic, even though race itself is not! Another one of Mother Nature’s little jokes.

 

Olber, Meet SETI

Olber, Meet SETI

 

 

Recall Olber’s Paradox: why is the night sky dark? If the universe were infinite and static, then a look in any direction in the sky should eventually intercept a distant star; so the sky should be a solid sheet of sunfire. Why is it not?

The answer now given is that the universe is expanding; so it is finite in age, so only a finite amount of light has reached us; and also that distant light sources are receding, and so their light is doppler-shifted to the red. So, for instance, the 3 degree background radiation is the redshifted light of the Big Bang fireball. So in a sense the night sky is a solid sheet of sunfire!

Now recall Fermi’s Paradox: where are they? Meaning, if there are extraterrestrial civilizations, why do we not see them? A special case of Fermi’s Paradox is the Silent Universe. Try as the SETI people might, they have yet to detect radio transmissions from alien civilizations. Why not? After all, in an infinite static universe, no matter which way we point our radio telescopes, we should find in its field of view a radio-transmitting civilization. Therefore the night sky should be a solid sheet of intelligent radio sources. But it isn’t. Why not?

No doubt you see the similarity of the Silent Universe Paradox with Olber’s Paradox. The latter wonders why the sky doesn’t glow in light; the former wonders why the sky doesn’t babble in radio. Therefore they have the same resolution; the expansion of the universe, which gives the universe a finite age and hence only finite time to beam light or radio; and which also redshifts distant light or radio sources down to invisibility.

 

So riddle me this: why is night dark and quiet?

Answer: because the universe is expanding.

 

On Cousinhood

            On Cousinhood

 

          Assured of Man’s supremacy?

          Oh silly sibling, don’t be smug!

          For great and wide’s our family tree;

          Dear sister seaweed, brother bug!

 

        First cousins are those who share a grandparent; second cousins share a great-grandparent; in general Nth cousins share an great^(N-1)-grandparent; or in other words share a parent N+1 generations back.  Therefore siblings are zeroth cousins, and one is one’s own negative first cousin!

        For what value of N are all human beings Nth cousins? This is a matter of evolutionary history. The present human species is about 200,000 years old, and at about 20 years per generation, that comes to 10,000 generations; so I would guess that we are at most 10,000ths cousins of each other; and probably much less.  There is some genetic evidence of genetic bottlenecks in human prehistory; so I would guess that we are at most 7000th cousins of each other, probably much less.

        And what of other species? I found the following figures at the site   www.evogeneao.com

        chimp      =  240,000^th cousin

        gorilla        = 310,000^th cousin

        cat            =  27,000,000^th cousin

        cow          =  28,000,000^th cousin

        robin         = 170,000,000^th cousin

        frog          =  175,000,000^th cousin

        fish           =  195,000,000^th cousin

        snail           = 300,000,000^th cousin

        dragonfly  = 300,000,000^th cousin

        octopus  =   300,000,000^th cousin

        According to that website, one can’t properly define cousinhood for bacteria. If we did, then I suppose that we’d be zillionth cousins to redwood and mildew, for some absurdly high value of zillion.

        In any case, it’s nice to have such a big and talented family.  Blessings, cousins!

 

Hominid Thermostat

Hominid Thermostat

 

The North Pole is melting. The Northwest Passage will soon be open on a regular basis; expect shipping patterns to change accordingly. So long, polar bears. What other little surprises does dear old Mother Nature have in store for us? That’s the trouble with climate change; you can’t predict just what the changes will be; but civilization needs predictability. 

I’m philosophical about it all. I have a theory, which I call the Hominid Thermostat. It goes as follows; Gaia, the planetary biosphere, noticed that that it’s been suffering from periodic ice ages lately. This will not do; so the biosphere evolved a species of semi-intelligent fire users (that’s us) to dig up and burn gigatonnes of coal and oil, and thus warm the planet. In typical Gaian fashion, the process is self-regulating; for as soon as we put enough CO2 into the air, then the seas will rise, drown out most of our cities, and thus end the process. How ecological!

The fish will like Florida; but Al Gore is anthropocentric enough to try to stop the process. He will probably fail because he’s trying to counter human political disunity, plutocratic greed, and ideological stupidity. Contra Naturam! 

Oh, by the way; according to New Scientist, part of the long-range  global-warming forecast is that certain areas will each year experience a combination of heat and humidity high enough to kill an unprotected human within hours. (Unprotected as in; naked, sopping wet, in the shade, sitting in front of a fan, drinking water constantly, but you die before the day is done. Only air conditioning or a deep cave would save you.) These heat-stress areas include parts of China, parts of Africa, parts of South America, all of the USA’s South and Eastern Seaboard; and all of the Indian subcontinent. So India had better  plug in the AC (and hope the power stays on) or dome over the cities, or dig in like hobbits. Or leave, or die. And they, and the rest of us, will have at most three centuries  to prepare.

 

Future History

         Future History