The Limits of the Miraculous

          The Limits of the Miraculous

 

 

Given a large enough sample size, improbable events are statistically likely. This plus the human mind’s tendency to read meaning into events makes inevitable the sporadic outbreak of the seemingly miraculous.

 

But the trouble with miracles is that the people demand two opposite things from them. A miracle must be uncommon, but it must also be reliable. A ritual that rarely works is of little value to the believer; but one that always works is no miracle at all. Any sufficiently reproducible magic is indistinguishable from technology.

 

In John Brunner’s fantasy novel, “The Traveler in Black”, the title character wryly noted that the sorcerers of his world are caught in a dilemma. Their spells are powered by chaos; but they must organize those spells to make use of them, and thus destroy the very chaos that gives them power.

 

So too with miracles. If the waters of Lourdes healed at a rate above random noise, then rest assured that Big Pharma would analyze the water, isolate the active ingredient, produce it by the vatful, and sell it at an inflated price.